‘Kingdom in Regression’→

Madawi al-Rasheed:

Saudi Arabia is neither an island of tranquility in a turbulent Arab sea nor a country on the verge of revolution. Rather, it is a kingdom in regression, plagued by regular reshuffling of princes and lacking energetic leadership with a serious vision for the future. Its aging king, Abdullah, has had two of his most senior brothers, Minister of Interior Naif and Minister of Defense Sultan, die within the last two years while he continues to hold on to the reins of power as an honorable senior member of an expanding clan-turned-corporation. All King Abdullah can do these days is micromanage the demands of the second-generation princes eager to secure a political post after his death, hence he regularly reshuffles. […]

Such reshuffles are bound to accelerate in the future, simply because the first rank of the royal clan is advanced in age, and each senior prince wants to ensure that his mini-fiefdom survives his death. Nothing will ensure this except the placement of a son in a senior government position. Needless to say, these reshuffles are a private family affair, with ordinary Saudis serving as mere spectators on the receiving end of sudden decisions. Saudi citizens have never had a say in such matters, which are driven by the balance of power between powerful clans within the Saudi royal family.

‘Dissatisfied’→

Joseph A. Kéchichian on why Prince Khaled bin Sultan was fired as Saudi deputy minister of defense:

Rather, and because of his very close work within the Saudi armed forces during and since the 1991 War for Kuwait, chances were excellent that the monarch was dissatisfied with specific military policies, on at least three counts: Prince Khalid’s record in the 2009 War with the Al Houthis along the Yemen borders that resulted in over 130 Saudi casualties, the recent Asian tour that probably involved additional defense purchases from China, and the decision to ink a multi-billion arms deal for 84 Boeing F-15s that Saudi Arabia purchased in 2010.

Various reports revealed that Prince Khalid’s leadership did not please the monarch over the long duration of the conflict as well as the large number of casualties in the Yemen crisis. Moreover, the king was also concerned that recent military purchases presented substantial expenditures, and may have caused the monarch to wonder whether such financial spending was warranted at a time when Saudi Arabia was anxious to meet domestic requirements.

Knowns and Unknowns→

David B. Roberts

Things are not always what they seem in Riyadh. Many assumed that Muqrin’s abrupt removal as head of intelligence in July 2012, coming in the wake of increasing public criticism, was a sign of him losing power. Instead this move was a precursor to assuming the position of second in line to the throne.

Instead of sifting through the minutiae of each candidate’s CV and family linkages or investing too heavily in court gossip, it is more fruitful to seek a set of guidelines and factors that will inform the decision-making.

Riyadology→

Brian Whitaker:

While it may be useful for diplomats and the like to know who stands where in the princely pecking order, the trouble with riyadology* is that it tends to over-emphasise the significance of minute twitches in what is fundamentally a rotten and unreformable system.

Whitaker makes a good point here, and I like the term Riyadology, which he explains in the footnotes as “the study of royal politics in Saudi Arabia.” But shouldn’t the term be spelled Riyadhology?

Who is Muqrin?

The appointment of Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz in the position of Saudi Arabia’s second deputy Prime Minister last Friday has sparked yet another round of speculation about succession in the Kingdom. It is speculation because almost none of what is written about the topic is based on first hand information. The Saudi royal family is notoriously secretive. Important decisions are made behind closed doors, and senior members of the royal family rarely give interviews. In the rare occasions when they do, they speak to state or state-friendly media that won’t confront them on anything.

This is why, as the Wall Street Journal correspondent Ellen Knickmeyer said, what passes as commentary and analysis by US think tank types about Saudi issues sometimes reads like a collection of biographical data taken from Wikipedia. The old adage about watching Saudi Arabia remains the same and remains true: “Those who know don’t talk, and those who talk don’t know.”

Unfortunately, this situation is likely to continue due to the lack of alternatives. Writing critically about the royal family is still off-limits in the Saudi local media, and the topic of succession is too sensitive to be seriously tackled there. In the days following the appointment of Prince Muqrin, newspapers were full of praise of him and the wise choice made by King Abdullah by appointing him for the position traditionally held princes nominated to assume the throne after the current King and Crown Prince.

It is hard to overstate the great lengths some local news outlets would go to illustrate this, but here is one example from al-Riyadh daily published this Saturday:

One of the nice stories told about Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz is that when he was governor of Hail (1980-1999) he had been seen more than once stopping at red lights when he was on his way to the governorate headquarters at 8am.

However, one of the newspaper’s regular columnists used to work as the head of media affairs under Prince Muqrin when he was governor of Medina between 1999 and 2005, and he wrote two pieces about his experience working for him. Fahad al-Ahmadi did not have any criticism of his former boss, which is not surprising, but he has offered some interesting anecdotes about the prince.

For example, al-Ahmad reports that Prince Muqrin’s favorite film is Commanding Heights, a six-hour PBS documentary about globalization and the rise of free markets based on a book of the same title by Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw. Al-Ahmadi also reports the prince is a fan of Stephen R. Covey’s self-help book The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People.

Other interests of the prince include agriculture and astronomy. According to al-Ahmadi, Prince Muqrin owns a large library of books on these subjects, and he has donated a telescope to Taibah University in Medina. Finally, the prince is reportedly highly interested in e-government and using technology in running the country and providing services to citizens.

In one of the few interviews he gave after being appointed, Prince Muqrin told Asharq al-Awsat about his personal passion for using technology in government. “It is important that this electronic information exchange is linked to the needs of the citizens in various fields,“ he told the newspaper. “We are living in an age where the pace of technological development is accelerating and we can only respond to this.”

Muqrin is said to be socially liberal and firm on security, and observers said he is expected to continue the policy of slow, cautious reform that has defined the era of King Abdullah. This is exactly what he told the newspaper, which reported that he “confirmed that efforts will continue in earnest to bring about the reform sought by King Abdullah.”

Prince Muqrin Named Saudi Second Deputy Prime Minister

King Abdullah has appointed his half-brother Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz as second deputy prime minister, the official Saudi Press Agency reported Friday. The role of second deputy PM has historically been a marker for who is next in the line of succession. Prince Muqrin, 67, is the youngest surviving son of the Kingdom’s founder and has previously served as governor of two provinces and chief of intelligence until he was replaced by his nephew Prince Bandar bin Sultan last year. Since then, Muqrin has served as an adviser and special envoy to the King.

“Many observers had thought Prince Muqrin’s removal as intelligence head last year meant that his stature was diminished,” BBC Middle East analyst Bill Law wrote. “However Friday’s announcement puts him at the top of the kingdom’s power structure.”

The appointment of Muqrin indicates that Saudi Arabia is not ready to transfer power to the grandsons of King Abdulaziz yet. Promoting Prince Mohammed bin Naif to the position of Interior Minister last November was seen as a sign that the younger generation of princes could finally be given the chance to join the top circle of power in the country and possibly play a larger role in succession, but it seems now that they will have to wait for a few more years.

Saudi observers describe Muqrin as socially liberal and firm in security, and if he becomes King he is expected to continue Abdullah’s slow and cautious approach to reform.

“Mugrin’s appointment is designed deliberately not to answer the question that remains on everybody’s lips; who in the next generation of the Al-Saud will rise to become King,” wrote Michael Stephens, a researcher at Qatar-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). “However what it does do is allow those younger Princes a little more time to cement themselves in the more powerful positions they have been afforded under the watchful eye of a trusted ally of King Abdullah.”

Related: See Riyadh Bureau special feature: 10 Saudi Royals Who Could Become the Next Crown Prince

‘Short-Term Kings’→

Voice of America:

Simon Henderson, Baker Fellow and Director of the Gulf and Energy Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, describes the Saudi monarchy as a series of “short-term kings.”

“The problem is that the kings have been becoming kings later in their lives and therefore they haven’t had the energy to properly serve,” Henderson said. “As a result, things do not get done as they might with a younger, more energetic leader — and it raises the likelihood of political unrest.”

Some in the West suggest that the obvious solution would be to pass the scepter on to the next generation – something the Kingdom has been reluctant to do for deeply entrenched reasons.

“The Saudi system confers seniority by age, and age is respected,” Henderson said. “And when you have got such a value system, it is very difficult to break out of the current way of doing things.”

Saudi Election 2016→

You have probably already seen the Riyadh Bureau special on Saudi succession, but here is a less serious look at this important topic. The first line reads: “After the Saudi King passed away, the Allegiance Committee agreed with the Cabinet to hold election between the grandsons of the country’s founder to choose the next king. Here, we give you the latest developments…”

The page imagines a satirical scenario in which the different branches of the royal family become political parties competing to win people votes. After the primaries, we reach a showdown between the National Guard Party led by Prince Miteb bin Abdullah against the Security and Development Party led by Prince Mohammed bin Naif. The page creator lists the strengths and weakness of each party, and concludes with the line: “The world is still watching.. for which Prince Saudis will vote?”

What’s Next for Former Saudi Interior Minister Prince Ahmed?

Here is another video being widely circulated in the Saudi Twitterverse. The video reportedly shows a big crowd receiving the former Saudi Interior Minister Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz at Riyadh Air Base last night. Some local news sites also published a picture of the Prince as he got off the plane on red carpet. The official state news agency, which usually covers such news of departures and arrivals of royal family members, did not report the reception.

Now how to read this? Is this simply a show of gratitude to the prince at the end of his long caree in public service, or is it an implicit discontent with the King’s decision to replace him with his younger nephew after less than five months in top office? The royal decree announcing the change has noted that it has come upon Prince Ahmed’s request, but it was interesting to see that both the Ahmed’s request to step down and the decision to appoint Mohammed bin Naif has come on the very same day.

Of course, that Ahmed has asked to be relieved of his position is the official story, one that “sources in the Kingdom have universally denied,” according to Gulf analyst Michael Stephens. There is a rumor that Prince Ahmed would be appointed in a new position and may even play a major role in the succession plans, but it is hard to imagine this considering his exit from MOI like this. He might be the youngest of the “Sudairi Seven,” but he is 70 years old.

Time for retirement? Only time will tell.

Founder’s Grandsons Take Over Saudi Security

Shortly after being appointed Interior Minister, Prince Mohammed bin Naif took the oath before King Abdullah. In the footage of the swearing-in aired by Saudi state television you will notice that only two people attended the short, simple ceremony: Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the intelligence chief, and Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, Commander of the National Guard.

That only these two attended the swearing-in is probably a symbolic thing, but with MbN at the helm of the Interior Ministry it is a fact that Saudi Arabia is now entrusting three of the Kingdom’s grandsons with most of its security.

Only the Defense Ministry remains controlled by one of Abdulaziz’s sons, and that could change in the upcoming cabinet shuffle expected in February. Such changes will no doubt offer interesting insights into the succession plans considered by the royal family for the future.

Saudi Succession Special Feature→

The resignation of Prince Ahmed bin Abdulziz from his post as Interior Minister has made observers revise their assumptions about plans for possible succession plans in the Saudi royal family. Prince Ahmed was replaced by his nephew Prince Mohammed bin Naif, son of the powerful late Crown Prince. With his appointment, he has become a forerunner for the much coveted No. 3 spot of the second deputy premier, the last stop before becoming Crown Prince. But he is not the only one eyeing the spot. Click here for a look at the ten contenders. This is a Riyadh Bureau special feature and it is best viewed in full screen mode.